Data & Methodology

This page explains what the numbers mean, where factual inputs come from, and the limits that matter when comparing a displayed estimate with a live operator screen.

Data sources

Game, score, and market-price coverage is supplied through The Odds API. Coverage, operators, markets, regions, and update times vary. EVeryBet is an independent display and analysis tool; a listed operator does not supply or endorse EVeryBet's model.

Standard pick'em payout values are derived from the cited public operator materials and displayed in EVeryBet's own format:

Operator promotions, dynamic payouts, alternate projections, voids, pushes, protected plays, and location-specific rules can differ from a standard chart. The operator's final confirmation and settlement rules control.

How an estimate is built

EVeryBet groups prices that describe the same event, participant, market, side, and line.
When opposing prices are available, the model removes the market's embedded margin to estimate a no-vig probability.
A fair-value estimate requires fresh, eligible peer prices at the exact same line. The offered target price is excluded from the comparison consensus used to evaluate that offer.
The model combines eligible exact-line peer prices using configured source weights and data-quality safeguards. A severely divergent price may be excluded from the consensus used to judge another price.
Expected value compares the model-estimated win probability with the payout at the displayed odds. Positive EV means the model estimate is above the break-even threshold; it does not mean the bet will win.

EVeryBet does not extrapolate fair value from nearby lines. If there are not enough fresh exact-line peers after excluding the target, the offer may still be shown as a posted price but it should not receive an EV estimate.

What “data points” means

The displayed data-point or comparison-line count measures distinct fresh offers available at the exact line, including the displayed target offer. It does not equal the number of independent peers used to price that target. A fair-value estimate separately requires at least two eligible target-excluded peers. A data point is not a historical game, a backtest result, or an independent prediction, so a larger count does not guarantee accuracy.

Displayed calculations

EV: model-estimated average return per unit staked at the displayed price.
Hit probability or fair price: the model estimate from eligible, fresh exact-line peer prices after margin removal.
Kelly or illustrative stake: a mathematical sizing output using the bankroll and probability entered or estimated. It is not an individualized recommendation.
Arbitrage: a projected stake split assuming both displayed prices are accepted in full and both sides settle under compatible rules.
Middle: a scenario comparison in which both selections can win only if the result falls between the two lines; profit is not guaranteed.
Parlay or flex EV: an estimate that can be wrong when legs are correlated, a payout is dynamic, or the operator applies a different chart.

Freshness and known limits

The board refresh time is when EVeryBet received or processed information, not necessarily when an operator first changed a price. Feeds can be delayed, cached, incomplete, mismatched, suspended, or unavailable. Operator limits, eligibility, promotions, and settlement rules are not fully represented.

Always compare the participant, market, side, period, line, price, start time, and settlement terms on the operator's final confirmation screen. If any part differs, the EVeryBet result no longer describes the same wager.

Independence and provenance

EVeryBet's calculations are independently implemented from mathematical formulas and factual market inputs. Public operator payout schedules are linked above. EVeryBet does not scrape operator pages, reproduce proprietary third-party methods or text, use private third-party data, or automate access in violation of a provider's terms.

Operator buttons use configured public third-party addresses. EVeryBet does not create or submit operator-ready bet-slip URLs, transmit selected legs or stakes, send credentials, or control an operator account. A copied comparison is a personal text reference that the user must verify independently.